National League Preview...
With Opening Day Sunday evening, I'm running out of time to make predictions about the upcoming season. With so many questions amongst all 30 teams, this is the most difficult season in quite a while to have any confidence in my choices.
Let's take a shot at the National League. Here goes!
NL West
This division will be fun. There is lots of young talent, good pitching, and interesting storylines. I expect the Dodgers to take the division due to solid pitching and good offense. I don't expect them to be stellar, and injuries will hurt them like they always do, but they have a solid 1-2-3 in the rotation, then adding Randy Wolf, whom I've always been a fan of, and Brett Tomko closing the rotation giving you close to 200 innings will be tough to beat.
I think the Padres will compete, but don't count out the Rockies and Diamondbacks. Either of the four teams could take the division if the right things happen, but the one sure bet is that the Giants will finish at the bottom.
I suppose it's not a sure bet, but I expect it.
NL Central
This is the toughest division in baseball to predict, and if I were to go out on a limb, I'd predict the Brewers win the Central.
I'm not ready to go that far.
The Astros improved their offense significantly with the addition of Carlos Lee, but took a step back in pitching. Losing Andy Pettitte hurts, but Jason Jennings should slide in comfortably.
At the end of the 2006 season, the Astros were coming on strong with the addition of Luke Scott, and I believe that momentum to continue. Scott will likely platoon right field with Jason Lane, but if either of them can hit near .300 with 20+ home runs, that'll be the key to success hitting behind Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee. I look for Morgan Ensberg to have a bounce-back season, and Brad Lidge to return to prove 2006 was a fluke. Add Mark Loretta, Mike Lamb, and combined with the other half of the Lane/Scott platoon, they have (arguably) the best bench in baseball.
The Brewers are tough, and their offense and pitching should stack up against anyone else in baseball, giving them a clear shot at the NL Wild Card.
The Cardinals took several steps back in their rotation, but return a solid lineup, only a bit older. With Jason Isringhausen dealing with injuries, their bullpen is weak.
Chicago has no pitching beyond Carlos Zambrano. Their offense will improve, but improving from a National League worst 66 wins in 2006 won't get them very far. The Cincinnati Reds will have an excellent first half, just as they always do, and Aaron Harang will prove he's one of the best kept secrets in baseball again, but it won't be enough.
Pittsburgh will be lying on the bottom at season's end.
NL East
The Atlanta Braves blew 29 saves in 2006. Convert 19 of those, and you're in the playoffs. The addition of Bob Wickman in the middle of 2006 will provide stability in the back of the rotation. Combine those wins with a terrible Mets rotation, and you're back on top of NL East -- that is, if it wasn't for the Phillies.
Philadelphia will finally finish on top of the division because of a solid offense lead by Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, and their rotation will keep them in games, while the bullpen shouldn't collapse. Atlanta finishes second, and the injury-riddled Mets finish third.
No one else in the division matters.
Awards
NL Pennant - Houston Astros
I'm a homer, I know, but their offense will be top-tier, and with the addition of a rejuvinated Roger Clemens mid-season, they're going places.
NL Cy Young Winner - Roy Oswalt, Houston
Most Valuable Player* - Lance Berkman, Houston
Rookie of the Year - Chris Young, Arizona
Manager of the Year - Ned Yost, Milwaukee
I wanted to vote Chase Utley as the MVP, but I believe he and Ryan Howard will split votes. Lance Berkman will have a monster year with Carlos Lee hitting behind him, and with the Astros winning the Central, no one will be able to ignore it.
Labels: Baseball, Predictions, Sports
